Betting The Moneyline – An Introduction for Novice Handicappers
May 21, 2011 by admin
Filed under Sportsbook Articles
Moneylines are used in just about every bet in the sportsbook. The moneyline, in its most basic form, is a way to describe how much a bet will pay should you win. Even in a pointspread wager, there is an associated moneyline. But moneylines are more commonly used in baseball, soccer, and hockey where a single run or goal is often the winning margin.
The Basic Moneyline
Take this example from major league baseball:
Boston Red Sox +155
New York Yankees -175
The team with the lower number is the favorite, the higher number is the underdog. In this case, the Yankees are favored over the Red Sox. Remember that negative numbers are lower as the number gets larger (so -115 is the favorite vs a -105 underdog)
Calculating Payouts
For Negative Moneylines (e.g. -175): You need to bet $175 to win $100
For Positive Moneylines (e.g. +155): You win $155 for every $100 bet
Or, you can think of it in terms of a decimal…
For Negative Moneylines (e.g. -175), calculate 100/175 = 0.57. Every $1 bet returns 57 cents
For Positive Moneylines (e.g. +155), calculate 155/100 = 1.55. Every $1 bet returns $1.55
A Moneyline For All
Football and Basketball are often bet with a pointspread and an associated moneyline of about -110. However, a true moneyline is often available for these games if you look for it. The moneyline lets you bet on who you think will win with no pointspread. Obviously, for payout for the favorite will be lower, especially if there is a large pointspread.
Find the Breakeven
One of the more advanced topics is realizing what percentage of the time a moneyline must win to break even. You can refer to a an online chart of moneyline win percentages or figure it out for yourself. Start by calculating a moneyline of +100. It takes one winning $1 bet to win $1. So if you win one and lose one, you are even. In other words, you have to win 50% to break even.
For favorites, figure out how many bets of $1 you need to win to win $1. At -200, you win 50 cents on the dollar, so it takes 2 bets. You need to win 2 of 3 or 66%. At -300, each winning bet pays 33 cents, so it takes 3 winning bets to counter a single losing bet for a 75% win percentage. Looking at our example, we see -175. It takes 1.75 bets to win $1. We can lose one and break even, so calculate 1.75 / 2.75 = 63%
For underdogs, it works similarly. At +200 you are paid $2 for a winning buck wager, so you can lose two equal bets and break even. In other words, you need to win 1 of 3 for 33%. Using our example moneyline, a team at +155 needs to win 0.63 / 1.63 = 39% to break even.
Why Is The Breakeven Percent Important
Knowing the break even point is critical. Hopefully, before you even looked at the payout, you figured out how likely you thought each team was to win the game. Let’s say you thought the Yankees/Red Sox game was a craps shoot with each team having a roughly equal chance to win. That makes the Red Sox an excellent bet since they only have to win 39% to break even. Or if you felt 70% sure the Yankees would win – at a 63% win percentage it may be a good bet (a 7% differential is a bit tight).
Remember it takes practice and experience to get a feel for the moneyline. Keep things relaxed and have fun.
MaTTeD is the owner of Cognitive Powers, Inc. and webmaster at http://www.wagering-sports.com, and other sports related websites dedicated to helping novice sports handicappers learn the basics, gain confidence, and learn how to successfully bet on sports in a fun and entertaining manner.
